US Stock Market Risk Monitor
Live US market risk regime monitor. Tracks 9 market indicators - 6 tactical components plus 3 macro signals - and shows a composite 0-100 risk score, recalculated about every 10 minutes.
No update since Oct 20, 11:02 PM - the figures below may be out of date.
Calm
3d avg: 26.8, confidence: High
67% of the past 12 months' scores are lower. 12-month range 1–57.2.
Summary
- Volatility and credit markets remain calm.
- Market breadth is healthy - broad participation.
- AI & Semiconductors leadership weakening - key risk.
- Speculative risk appetite remains firm.
Top risk drivers
- AI Leadership8/10
- Market Trend5/20
- VIX Stress1.8/20
- HY Credit Spread1.7/25
30-Day Score
VIX Stress
STALEVIX is between 16 and 20 - around or below its long-term average.
Yahoo Finance/CBOE
HY Credit Spread
STALEHigh-yield spread normal (3–4%). Yield curve normal (positive spread). Data as of 2026-10-19.
FRED (HY OAS + T10Y2Y)
Market Trend
STALESPY above its 50-day average. QQQ slightly below its 50-day average. SMH trailed SPY in the latest session. 10-year yield 5.09% - high rate pressure on equities.
Alpaca / Finnhub / FRED
Market Breadth
STALERSP in line with or ahead of SPY. IWM keeping pace with SPY.
Alpaca / Finnhub
AI Leadership
STALESMH lagging QQQ. NVDA below its 20-day average. AMD below its 20-day average. AVGO below its 20-day average.
Alpaca / Finnhub
Speculative Risk
STALESpeculative assets broadly flat or higher. Crypto Fear & Greed: 55 (Greed).
Alpaca / Binance / alternative.me
Market News
- SPY
- SPY
- NVDA
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QQQ Energy Only Sector Lower In Tuesday Trading As Defensives LeadBenzinga, 269 h ago
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QQQ The S&P 500 Mirage: What Dalio, Damodaran & Burry See Beneath The RallySeekingAlpha, 269 h ago
- META
- META
Structural Fragility
Background context - not included in 0–100 scoreExtreme
US equity valuations remain near historical extremes (Shiller CAPE above 35). Valuation is a background risk amplifier, not a crash timing signal: high structural fragility means any tactical stress could have an outsized impact. (Manual estimate, checked October 2026 - not a live feed.)
- Shiller CAPE: Extreme (above 35) (long-run median ≈ 16, manual estimate)
- Market cap / GDP: Elevated (Buffett indicator, manual estimate)
Zones
Data providers
This dashboard is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Market data may be delayed. Past patterns do not predict future results.
Major US stock market crashes since 1929
Every major crash and severe bear market in modern US market history, with the peak-to-trough decline.
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1929–1932 Wall Street Crash, Great Depression −89%
The deepest crash in US history. Rampant speculation and margin debt unwound violently - the Dow lost about a quarter in two days (Black Monday and Tuesday) and roughly 89% from its 1929 peak to the 1932 bottom, ushering in the Great Depression.
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1937–1938 Recession of 1937 ≈ −50%
A premature tightening of fiscal and monetary policy during the fragile recovery from the Depression sent the market down about 50% over roughly a year.
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1962 Kennedy Slide (Flash Crash of 1962) ≈ −27%
A sharp, largely sentiment-driven sell-off - sometimes called the 'Flash Crash of 1962' - wiped out about 27% before the market recovered later that year.
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1973–1974 Oil-Crisis Bear Market ≈ −48%
The OPEC oil embargo, stagflation and the collapse of the 'Nifty Fifty' growth stocks drove a 21-month bear market of roughly 48%.
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1987 Black Monday −22.6% in one day
On 19 October 1987 the Dow fell 22.6% in a single session - still the largest one-day percentage drop ever. Portfolio insurance and program trading amplified the cascade; the total drawdown was about 34%.
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2000–2002 Dot-com Bust S&P ≈ −49%, Nasdaq ≈ −78%
The internet and technology bubble burst. The Nasdaq lost nearly 78% of its value over more than two years as profitless dot-coms collapsed.
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2007–2009 Global Financial Crisis ≈ −57%
The US housing bubble and subprime-mortgage meltdown triggered a banking crisis and the failure of Lehman Brothers. The S&P 500 fell about 57% from its October 2007 peak to the March 2009 bottom - the worst decline since 1929.
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2020 COVID-19 Crash ≈ −34%
Pandemic lockdowns froze the global economy. The S&P 500 fell about 34% in just 33 days - the fastest bear market in history - before unprecedented stimulus sparked a rapid recovery.
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2022 Inflation / Rate-Hike Bear Market S&P ≈ −25%, Nasdaq ≈ −37%
Four-decade-high inflation forced the Federal Reserve into its most aggressive rate-hiking cycle since the 1980s, deflating bonds and high-growth tech through a grinding, year-long bear market.
Declines are approximate peak-to-trough drops in the S&P 500 (Dow before 1957, Nasdaq where noted). This monitor did not exist during these crashes, and no score is claimed for them.
Results are informational. Calculation is based on your input and public rules, official accounting may differ. For accuracy, confirm the final result if needed from the appropriate official source or specialist. See the terms of use.
How it works?
The US Stock Market Risk Monitor continuously monitors 9 market indicators - 6 tactical components that build the score plus 3 macro signals shown in context - and combines the tactical scores into a single 0-100 score. It is a market risk regime monitor, not a crash prediction engine.
How the score is built
- VIX Stress (0-20 pts) - The CBOE Volatility Index measures near-term fear in options markets. A VIX below 16 scores 0; above 30 scores the maximum 20.
- Credit Stress (0-25 pts) - The ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread (FRED: BAMLH0A0HYM2) measures the extra yield investors demand for risky bonds. The spread gives 0-20 points: 0 at 3% or below, rising to 18 at 6.5% and 20 at 8% or above. An inverted yield curve adds up to 5 more.
- Market Trend (0-20 pts) - Checks whether SPY and QQQ are above or below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, whether the SMH chip ETF lagged SPY in the latest session, and how high the 10-year Treasury yield is. Indexes below key moving averages add risk points.
- Market Breadth (0-15 pts) - Compares equal-weight RSP and small-cap IWM to SPY. When large-cap mega stocks hold the index up while most stocks fall, breadth damage adds risk.
- AI Leadership (0-10 pts) - Monitors NVDA, AMD, AVGO, and the SMH semiconductor ETF. When AI and chip leaders weaken, it signals a shift in market leadership.
- Speculative Risk Appetite (0-10 pts) - Tracks high-beta fintech (SOFI, COIN, HOOD) and crypto (BTC, ETH). When speculative names fall together, risk appetite is declining.
Macro indicators
Three macro signals are shown alongside the score as additional context. They also feed into the tactical components above:
- Yield Curve 10Y−2Y - An inverted yield curve (short rates above long rates) signals recession risk and adjusts the Credit Stress component.
- 10Y Treasury Yield - Rising long-term rates increase borrowing costs and compress equity valuations. High yields add risk points to the Market Trend component.
- Crypto Fear & Greed - Measures sentiment across crypto markets as a proxy for broad speculative appetite. Fear readings (35 or below) add up to 2 points to the Speculative Risk component.
Structural Fragility
Shown separately. Valuation metrics like CAPE ratio are background context, not timing signals. A high valuation score alone does not trigger a high risk score.
Score smoothing
The current score reacts to fresh data. A 3-day rolling average is also shown to smooth out intraday noise. Regime labels (Calm / Watchful / Elevated / Danger / Crash) use hysteresis to avoid flickering at zone boundaries.